{"id":3401,"date":"2020-01-14T12:58:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T11:58:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.corestone.ch\/?p=3401"},"modified":"2020-02-28T12:59:54","modified_gmt":"2020-02-28T11:59:54","slug":"investment-outlook-q1-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.corestone.ch\/de\/investment-outlook-q1-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"Investment Outlook (Q1\/2020)"},"content":{"rendered":"<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"3401\" class=\"elementor elementor-3401\" data-elementor-post-type=\"post\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-2a2a0088 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"2a2a0088\" data-element_type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-6b17993e\" data-id=\"6b17993e\" data-element_type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-2ebf4104 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"2ebf4104\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<p><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cSupreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy&#8217;s resistance without fighting.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sun Tzu, The Art of War<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 30px; font-style: normal;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 30px; font-style: normal;\">Macro Environment<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>No significant inflation pressure in developed markets<\/li>\n<li>European growth loses further momentum<\/li>\n<li>US consumer confidence remains intact while capital markets focus on international trade woes<\/li>\n<li>Emerging markets set to rebound after last year\u2019s slowdown<\/li>\n<li>Corona virus in China has to be watched carefully<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Outlook and Markets<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Valuations remain stretched in a lot of markets<\/li>\n<li>Easing of trade frictions between the US and China as a tailwind for markets. Trump\u2019s Tweets continue to be a major market mover<\/li>\n<li>Fed remains under (mostly political) pressure to cut rates substantially<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Main Investment Calls<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stay cautious and maintain a neutral stance between the income and the return part of the portfolio<\/li>\n<li>Overweight in Cash<\/li>\n<li>Overweight in Sovereign Bonds as a recession risk buffer<\/li>\n<li>Overweight in Emerging vs Developed Equities<\/li>\n<li>EMD and Investment Grade Credit over Sovereign Bonds<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Main Risks<\/h2>\n<p><\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Full scale trade war between the US and China, escalating further also on a political level despite the recent agreement on \u201cphase-one\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Higher than expected inflation in the US due to higher import tariffs, coupled with substantially increased spending leads to the Fed needing to restart hiking rates, thus choking off economic momentum, leading to an earlier and deeper recession<\/li>\n<li>Unexpected fallout from a chaotic Brexit could lead to another Euro crisis and put global growth at risk<\/li>\n<li>Risks of policy missteps as China continues the attempt to rebalance its economy to a more domestically supported one and impose too strict regulatory frameworks on banks<\/li>\n<li>Further escalation of the Iran-US conflict, sending oil prices substantially higher, leading to higher inflation rates and more pronounced recessionary tendencies<\/li>\n<li>Spreading of the Corona virus leading to a short term disruption of supply chains and panic selling of risk assets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>To receive the full Investment Outlook, please subscribe to our mailing list below.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Investment Outlook for the first quarter of 2020 has been published.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[15,130],"class_list":["post-3401","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investment-outlooks","tag-investment-outlook","tag-q12020"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.9 - 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